This world lacks Great Strategic Thinkers. I don't doubt that there are Great Strategic Thinkers, but their visions are being neglected by politicians pursuing solely their personal minor interests. Time will tell that decisions to let short-term benefits prevail, will turn the tide at the expense of the State- and the Global Community likewise.
Hardly anything at the Global Stage happens overnight. "We didn't see it coming" is a deliberately false statement to distract from the fact that States have the obligation to anticipate international developments. What characterizes our State, is absenteeism, hiding behind the most of banal issues, knowingly ignoring any pending major humanitarian crisis, up to the point where States are hit in the face with reality- but even then they persist in absenteeism.
They are standing there, with their pathetic hypocritical faces, on Memorial Day, stating that "This must never happen again". Well, it does happen again, at the expense of everyone. Not only the "direct" victims will suffer, many will suffer, be it that some will suffer disproportionately.
Quite stand-alone operators are instilling fear by harboring threats as a means to leave an impact. This is a last resort to compensate for the lack of natural authority and a flourishing economy. There is no counterbalance and their power is not kept in check due to division amongst others. A further increasing globalism of dependence and Prisoner's Dilemma's are main threats to counterbalance.
Some (even many) citizens are receptive to the sole political narrative of "the enemy", "us against them". Others are easily dehumanized, while many people fail to see the actual economical motives behind these incentives. Not so much expansion of power itself, but economical motives are pivotal to acts of hostility. For that matter, messages are created to leave an impression: narratives are selected carefully to imprint hostility and perceptions of victimisation. By contrast, aggressors broaden the scope of the definition of "hostile acts" in order to narrow the window of opportunity and soon they will arrive at the point of no return. The true victim becomes the aggressor. Even attempts at "reconciliation" are part of the narrative. No serious attempt at reconciliation is to be taken, but covert motives are in play.